Public and verifiable

Track record

The evolution of Folioquill's Composite Score and signals, week after week.

What you're looking at. This page shows the evolution of market states measured by the system (regime, Composite Score 0–100, VIX, per-index signals). These are not returns or performance: no percentage gains, no economic results. We also show the signals that turned out wrong.

Composite Score over time

Weeks tracked: 48 From 2026-01-23 to 2026-07-17 Min 15 · Max 80 · Last 44

The Composite Score is a market-state index (0–100), not a return.

Composite Score and regime history

DateCompositeRegime EquityVolatilityMacroBreadth VIXVIX regime
2026-07-17 44 BEAR / RISK-OFF — Global risk-off 28 34 66 21 18.9 HIGH
2026-07-09 64 NEUTRAL SELECTIVE 51 77 63 51 15.8 LOW
2026-07-02 60 NEUTRAL SELECTIVE — EU-led 47 72 62 44 16.1 LOW
2026-07-01 53 NEUTRAL FRAGILE — EU-led 36 63 62 28 16.6 MEDIUM
2026-06-29 48 NEUTRAL FRAGILE 35 47 61 30 17.6 MEDIUM
2026-06-26 49 NEUTRAL FRAGILE — EU-led 42 38 61 34 18.4 MEDIUM
2026-06-22 62 NEUTRAL SELECTIVE 55 51 61 55 17.3 MEDIUM
2026-06-18 74 BULL — EU-led 73 65 61 83 16.4 MEDIUM
2026-06-15 65 BULL SELECTIVE — EU-led 54 70 61 54 16.2 LOW
2026-06-12 61 NEUTRAL SELECTIVE — EU-led 56 46 61 57 17.7 MEDIUM
2026-06-08 51 BEAR / RISK-OFF 44 34 61 44 18.9 HIGH
2026-06-05 47 BEAR / RISK-OFF — EU-led 43 17 61 38 21.5 HIGH
2026-06-01 70 BULL 67 73 62 69 16.1 LOW
2026-05-29 76 BULL 76 79 62 81 15.3 LOW
2026-05-22 68 BULL SELECTIVE 66 63 64 69 16.6 MEDIUM
2026-05-18 55 NEUTRAL SELECTIVE — Geographic divergence 46 46 66 51 17.8 MEDIUM
2026-05-15 56 NEUTRAL SELECTIVE — Geographic divergence 55 36 66 53 18.4 MEDIUM
2026-05-11 68 BULL SELECTIVE — US Tech-led 78 39 64 80 18.4 MEDIUM
2026-05-08 70 BULL — US Tech-led 77 49 64 80 17.2 MEDIUM
2026-05-04 70 BULL — US Tech-led 81 40 66 82 18.3 MEDIUM
2026-05-01 80 BULL 97 50 66 100 17.0 MEDIUM
2026-04-27 78 BULL 100 43 69 100 18.0 MEDIUM
2026-04-24 74 BULL 92 33 69 100 18.7 HIGH
2026-04-20 73 BULL 92 36 66 100 18.9 MEDIUM
2026-04-17 73 BULL 88 44 66 95 17.5 MEDIUM
2026-04-13 62 NEUTRAL SELECTIVE — EU-led 72 33 67 84 19.1 HIGH
2026-04-10 52 BEAR / RISK-OFF — EU-led 54 29 67 54 19.2 HIGH
2026-04-06 36 BEAR / RISK-OFF — EU-led 34 11 65 25 24.2 HIGH
2026-04-02 32 BEAR / RISK-OFF — EU-led 27 10 65 16 23.9 HIGH
2026-03-30 15 BEAR / RISK-OFF — Global risk-off 0 2 70 0 30.6 HIGH
2026-03-27 15 BEAR / RISK-OFF — Global risk-off 0 2 70 0 31.1 HIGH
2026-03-23 21 BEAR / RISK-OFF — Global risk-off 5 6 69 5 26.1 HIGH
2026-03-20 21 BEAR / RISK-OFF — Global risk-off 7 5 69 0 26.8 HIGH
2026-03-16 26 BEAR / RISK-OFF — Global risk-off 19 11 70 14 23.5 HIGH
2026-03-13 23 BEAR / RISK-OFF — Global risk-off 18 4 70 6 27.2 HIGH
2026-03-09 32 BEAR / RISK-OFF — Geographic divergence 32 5 70 26 25.5 HIGH
2026-03-06 29 BEAR / RISK-OFF — Global risk-off 28 3 70 19 29.5 HIGH
2026-03-02 40 BEAR / RISK-OFF — Global risk-off 34 15 70 34 21.4 HIGH
2026-02-27 46 BEAR / RISK-OFF — EU-led 47 20 70 47 19.9 HIGH
2026-02-23 45 BEAR / RISK-OFF — EU-led 41 16 73 41 21.0 HIGH
2026-02-20 49 BEAR / RISK-OFF — EU-led 48 24 73 48 19.1 HIGH
2026-02-13 44 BEAR / RISK-OFF 38 16 74 38 21.2 HIGH
2026-02-09 58 NEUTRAL SELECTIVE 52 44 73 52 17.4 MEDIUM
2026-02-06 50 BEAR / RISK-OFF 46 17 73 46 20.4 HIGH
2026-02-02 65 BULL SELECTIVE 58 63 73 58 16.3 MEDIUM
2026-01-30 57 NEUTRAL SELECTIVE 52 35 73 52 17.4 MEDIUM
2026-01-26 64 NEUTRAL SELECTIVE 51 65 73 51 16.1 MEDIUM
2026-01-23 63 NEUTRAL SELECTIVE 53 54 73 53 16.1 MEDIUM

Per-index signals over time

Momentum signal state (BULL / NEUTRAL / BEAR) with its Z-score. Past states, not recommendations.

Date SP500NASDAQ100Russell2000EuroStoxx50FTSE_MIB
2026-07-17 NEUTRALz -0.72 BEARz -1.40 NEUTRALz -0.46 BEARz -1.08 NEUTRALz -0.68
2026-07-09 NEUTRALz 0.25 NEUTRALz -0.00 NEUTRALz 0.24 NEUTRALz -0.17 NEUTRALz -0.05
2026-07-02 BEARz -1.04 BEARz -1.41 NEUTRALz -0.14 BULLz 1.12 NEUTRALz 0.85
2026-07-01 BEARz -1.04 BEARz -1.41 NEUTRALz -0.18 NEUTRALz -0.12 NEUTRALz -0.01
2026-06-29 BEARz -1.05 NEUTRALz -0.86 NEUTRALz -0.11 NEUTRALz -0.36 NEUTRALz -0.62
2026-06-26 BEARz -1.24 BEARz -1.14 NEUTRALz 0.05 NEUTRALz 0.45 NEUTRALz 0.20
2026-06-22 NEUTRALz -0.44 NEUTRALz 0.14 NEUTRALz 0.82 NEUTRALz 0.24 NEUTRALz 0.28
2026-06-18 NEUTRALz 0.01 NEUTRALz 0.54 BULLz 1.26 BULLz 1.25 BULLz 1.51
2026-06-15 NEUTRALz -0.38 NEUTRALz 0.08 NEUTRALz 0.18 NEUTRALz 0.97 NEUTRALz -0.04
2026-06-12 NEUTRALz -0.65 NEUTRALz -0.39 NEUTRALz 0.17 BULLz 1.70 NEUTRALz 0.29
2026-06-08 NEUTRALz -0.35 NEUTRALz 0.00 NEUTRALz -0.49 NEUTRALz -0.00 NEUTRALz -0.36
2026-06-05 NEUTRALz -0.56 NEUTRALz -0.35 BEARz -1.05 NEUTRALz 0.71 NEUTRALz -0.18
2026-06-01 NEUTRALz 0.98 BULLz 1.65 NEUTRALz 0.24 NEUTRALz 0.45 NEUTRALz 0.13
2026-05-29 BULLz 1.22 BULLz 1.74 NEUTRALz 0.82 NEUTRALz 0.69 NEUTRALz 0.78
2026-05-22 NEUTRALz 0.88 BULLz 1.44 NEUTRALz 0.13 NEUTRALz 0.44 NEUTRALz 0.26
2026-05-18 NEUTRALz 0.44 BULLz 1.08 NEUTRALz -0.65 NEUTRALz -0.96 NEUTRALz -0.64
2026-05-15 NEUTRALz 0.79 BULLz 1.43 NEUTRALz -0.09 BEARz -1.04 NEUTRALz -0.05
2026-05-11 BULLz 1.72 BULLz 2.62 BULLz 1.26 NEUTRALz -0.12 NEUTRALz 0.21
2026-05-08 BULLz 1.60 BULLz 2.58 BULLz 1.10 NEUTRALz -0.39 NEUTRALz 0.47
2026-05-04 BULLz 1.89 BULLz 2.38 BULLz 1.56 NEUTRALz 0.24 NEUTRALz 0.16
2026-05-01 BULLz 2.07 BULLz 2.50 BULLz 1.87 BULLz 1.21 BULLz 1.65
2026-04-27 BULLz 2.43 BULLz 2.80 BULLz 1.97 BULLz 1.49 BULLz 1.66
2026-04-24 BULLz 1.88 BULLz 2.24 BULLz 1.53 BULLz 1.05 BULLz 1.66
2026-04-20 BULLz 1.60 BULLz 1.47 BULLz 2.00 BULLz 1.51 BULLz 1.90
2026-04-17 BULLz 1.60 BULLz 1.49 BULLz 2.02 NEUTRALz 0.97 BULLz 1.50
2026-04-13 NEUTRALz 0.44 NEUTRALz 0.30 BULLz 1.04 BULLz 1.02 BULLz 1.52
2026-04-10 NEUTRALz -0.25 NEUTRALz -0.30 NEUTRALz 0.29 NEUTRALz 0.21 NEUTRALz 0.78
2026-04-06 BEARz -1.14 BEARz -1.02 NEUTRALz -0.68 NEUTRALz -0.47 NEUTRALz 0.09
2026-04-02 BEARz -1.38 BEARz -1.19 BEARz -1.12 NEUTRALz -0.75 NEUTRALz -0.12
2026-03-30 BEARz -2.27 BEARz -1.94 BEARz -1.95 BEARz -2.86 BEARz -2.43
2026-03-27 BEARz -2.30 BEARz -1.86 BEARz -1.99 BEARz -2.44 BEARz -1.93
2026-03-23 BEARz -1.55 NEUTRALz -0.99 BEARz -1.61 BEARz -2.59 BEARz -2.17
2026-03-20 BEARz -1.64 BEARz -1.04 BEARz -1.98 BEARz -2.27 BEARz -1.60
2026-03-16 NEUTRALz -0.80 NEUTRALz -0.33 BEARz -1.11 BEARz -2.07 BEARz -1.98
2026-03-13 BEARz -1.39 NEUTRALz -0.89 BEARz -1.65 BEARz -1.34 BEARz -1.16
2026-03-09 NEUTRALz -0.30 NEUTRALz 0.05 NEUTRALz -0.45 BEARz -1.35 BEARz -1.47
2026-03-06 NEUTRALz -0.77 NEUTRALz -0.43 NEUTRALz -0.97 BEARz -1.05 BEARz -1.11
2026-03-02 NEUTRALz -0.57 NEUTRALz -0.86 NEUTRALz -0.24 NEUTRALz -0.85 NEUTRALz -0.77
2026-02-27 NEUTRALz -0.61 NEUTRALz -0.97 NEUTRALz -0.40 NEUTRALz 0.73 NEUTRALz 0.60
2026-02-23 NEUTRALz -0.53 NEUTRALz -0.81 NEUTRALz -0.85 NEUTRALz 0.28 NEUTRALz 0.19
2026-02-20 NEUTRALz -0.16 NEUTRALz -0.47 NEUTRALz -0.47 NEUTRALz 0.43 NEUTRALz 0.24
2026-02-13 NEUTRALz -0.59 NEUTRALz -0.78 NEUTRALz -0.27 NEUTRALz -0.22 NEUTRALz -0.51
2026-02-09 NEUTRALz -0.16 NEUTRALz -0.46 NEUTRALz 0.32 NEUTRALz 0.47 NEUTRALz 0.21
2026-02-06 NEUTRALz -0.27 NEUTRALz -0.69 NEUTRALz 0.39 NEUTRALz 0.05 NEUTRALz -0.33
2026-02-02 NEUTRALz 0.13 NEUTRALz 0.04 NEUTRALz 0.89 NEUTRALz 0.50 NEUTRALz 0.07
2026-01-30 NEUTRALz -0.17 NEUTRALz -0.24 NEUTRALz 0.54 NEUTRALz 0.42 NEUTRALz -0.18
2026-01-26 NEUTRALz -0.18 NEUTRALz -0.21 NEUTRALz 0.59 NEUTRALz 0.46 NEUTRALz -0.42
2026-01-23 NEUTRALz -0.19 NEUTRALz -0.20 NEUTRALz 0.52 NEUTRALz 0.70 NEUTRALz -0.29
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